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Tuesday, August 30, 2005

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Playing it Safe is Paying Off

What a mess. The impact from the storm seems certainly more serious to the economy than first realized . Traders who jumped the gun yesterday ( that were conditioned to buy any and all bad news) certainly feel foolish so far today. There is a difference from being a contrarian that has the ability to guage a situation and assess if the crowd is over reacting, versus simply being reckless. The damage from the storm perhaps seemed light at first due due to the inability of the media to accurately report on it . Ironically, the severe flooding hindered the media which showed that the worst fears of flooding had not materialized.

We now know that over 80% of New Orleans is flooded, and damage to the nations oil infrastructure may take months to repair. Most over anxious bulls did not pause long enough to even get into their offices as the bids were already showing up pre-market. The pattern of buying bad news seems so ingrained with these young gun slingers. We are afraid to imagine what the knee jerk reaction in the market would be if they were "saddled" with truly wonderful news.

The market is still plodding along its downtrend. Unfortunately, we see no turn around at this point in time . In fact, we are expecting another shoe to drop . Another storm, terrorism, geo political flare ups , a large corporate pre- anouncement, .... take your pick . At least one of these events are due and the market is in a very vulnerable state . This is not the time to trade cute or to be a hero . Instead traders should be only interested in finding ways to protect their capital. Hmmm....lets see......how does cash sound?

Like music to our ears.

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