Blinded by the Storm 9-23-05

Good Morning.

Overseas markets were mixed and Oil and Gold are lower. U.S. Futures were indicating a mildly weak opening most of the morning and there was no economic news to speak of. Key stock tells today are Oracle (ORCL) which was light on revenues but still spoke positively about the future, Alcoa (AA) which blamed weak earnings on rising costs, Palm (PALM) which had weak guidance, 3Com (COMS) which raised guidance, and Dell (DELL) which has been talking positively about their high margin printer business.

Curiously Oil is not flying the way it did pre-Katrina…hmmm. Is the slippery commodity trying to tell us that everyone is overreacting? Even if more infrastructure damage does occur and winter heating bills double, would the U.S. Consumer completely fall out of bed? No doubt some would, but we must remember that heating bills for most Americans are far less expensive than summer cooling bills. The hot summer didn't seem to crimp this economy despite the relative high energy cost consumers were paying. Keep in mind we are not ignoring other costs associated with higher price of energy over the winter and are also mindful of the potential increase of chemical production cost. Simply put, we are just trying to be realistic and less of a doomsday prognosticator.

Most importantly the upcoming boom in technology applications that we are expecting late this fall will provide a new bread of leadership to focus everyone's attention on. At this moment, people can only concentrate on every hiccup in the path of Rita. On the sidelines there's many positives taking place. Do you know anybody who's positioning themselves for the upcoming positives over the next few months? They are: new technology product cycle, tail end of the Fed tightenings, rotation from housing, energy, and bonds, into higher growth sectors, and a possible beginning of the "welcome home party" for the U.S. Troops in Iraq. Indeed there are tremendous positives out there; it's just that everyone is blinded by the storm.

Good Trading.

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