The Upstream Battle. 11-30-05

Good Afternoon.

If you ever wanted to know how it feels to be a Salmon…today's action is a good representation. Our view is that if you stay fully immersed in these waters, just like a Salmon trying to spawn...you're about to get $*@#&^. Still some traders won't get to the promised land and will simply be snatched up by the waiting Bear just over the falls.

When the market is struggling so hard to gain a little traction even on a day of window dressing then warning signs should be flashing. We are not suggesting that a deep decline is imminent rather, that the pullback has simply not run its course. Another 1% retracement from these levels will be exactly what the doctor orders for a continuation of the Year End Rally. Our view is that the water will be safe to suite up our aggressive exposure sometime late next week. In the meantime, we are approximately 50% invested with the other half nicely tucked into the money market waiting for lower prices.

Understand this: We are not opposed to redeploying our cash at higher prices should the internals of the market demonstrate broad participation earlier than we'd expect.

Raise some cash.

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The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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"Be Nimble" Like Bruce Lee. 11-29-05

Good Afternoon.

The Bulls have plenty of ammunition to work with today but so far we are under whelmed with their performance. Durable goods were much better than expected largely thanks to military aircraft spending. Consumer confidence was well ahead of expectations which is no shock considering that the Bulls returned to Wall St. in November. New home sales were higher than expected negating the weak showing of yesterday's housing data. All-in-all the Bulls should be doing a better job with this data particularly in the NASDAQ. It is always disconcerting when the DOW outperforms the NASDAQ.

Our concern is that this market needs to shake things up before it can continue its march higher. Under the surface there clearly are cracks that have appeared foreshadowing the pullback that we are describing. The problem is that "end of the month window dressing" is keeping things temporarily afloat. In fact if the Bears don't show any muscle soon the "can't get 'em down so we might as well buy 'em" crowd may take the market higher over the next one or two days.

We have made selective small buys in anticipation of this action. However, we will scrutinize the internals of any rally that materializes for signs of Large Cap slippage. When the Big Boys i.e. MSFT, CSCO, DELL, INTC etc. start to lag, the ingredients for a more fearful shakeout later in the week or early next week will be in place. Until then, "trader be nimble, trader be quick…don't try to catch every last tick".

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Bulls Seem Complacent

The stock market finally sounded the retreat. Breadth was 2:1 negative on both the NASDAQ and NYSE while volume was moderate at 1.6b and 1.4b respectively. Small Caps and speculative plays were sold off much harder than the major averages would have you believe. This should not come as a surprise since the most profits to protect have been in those issues. Even the Biotechnology Index was not spared from aggressive sellers. All-in-all traders are selling winners in order to protect any positive performance that they have worked so hard to finally achieve in 2005.

Is this another one day wonder for the Bears or is this a harbinger of more selling to come. The likely scenario is for the dip buyers to step in sometime tomorrow in an attempt to do a little window dressing for month's end. Is it just us or do you envision a Trader standing near your window wearing a dress at the end of every month? ... never-mind.

If You Held a Taser to Our Head:
The concern that we have for the market is that complacency seems to be permeating. If we hear one more Bull describe the wished for pullback as a healthy event we're "gonna get sick"! Therefore we would not at all be surprised to see a little more fear and panic than is currently expected to hit the market late this week or early next week. As long as it does not breach important support levels the market will still be considered in an intermediate uptrend. However, we have not yet decided exactly what those levels are at this point.

Hope you traded well.

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The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Our Black Friday Sales Served Us Well! 11-28-05

Good Afternoon.

On Wednesday and Friday of last week we chose to lighten up some of our exposure into strength. Evidently that was the right decision. The market is undergoing a small pullback as profit takers jumped on pre-market strength. The breadth is negative at approximately 2:1 on both the NASDAQ and NYSE and Small Cap action is BLAH. Even the declines in Oil & Gas are not lending any support to the market. It appears that stock market traders are recognizing that the mild winter thus far is not sustainable and expectations of Oil soon reversing higher are creeping into their heads.

The sentiment indicators recently are alarming; for the moment there are simply not enough Bears and too many Bulls for our comfort. Upside volume as a percentage of total volume is also continuing to be a cause for concern.

The market will be considered VERY overbought by the middle of this week. Coincidentally (or not so) November's month end also coincides with the middle of the week. Therefore, today's pullback will likely draw in buyers as fund managers will once again play the window dressing game. However, the combination of month end and an extremely overbought market should produce more aggressive selling in the latter part of the week.

Your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team will be looking for short-term trading opportunities today and tomorrow to deploy the cash that we raised on Friday. We expect to be scaling into our favorite names around NASDAQ 2230 - 2235. Our intention is to flip out of that acquired exposure into window dressing strength and wait for the more aggressive pullback before we truly reload the boat.

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Turning in the Keys to Some of Our Rented Exposure 11-23-05

Good Afternoon

The inclination to lock in some profits for the fortunate Bulls who caught this rally is extremely strong. The only thing preventing them from doing so will be continued traction in the NASDAQ. In other words everyone has their finger on the sell button and will act as soon as the internals start to slip.

This market is badly in need of a cat nap. Upside volume as a percentage of total volume is flashing warning signs that a correction is near. The oil inventory numbers which were released this morning are pressuring the commodity. This is providing a little fuel for the Bulls to keep the good cheer moving, although unimpressively so.

Your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team is heavily long and far outperforming the major averages. In light of this we have decided to start locking in some profits into today's strength (currently NASDAQ 2267). We will go home still very long but with a little more flexibility in order to add to our favorite names early next week. Money management discipline dictates that we don't try to squeeze out every last penny from every position we hold. Managing money is a process whether or not you gore Matador's or live in a den.

Hope you're doing well. Have a Happy Holiday...Enjoy your Thanksgiving! See you on Monday.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Buy The Dips 11-22-05

There will be no posts today due to client meetings.

The Kcap Team encourages you to Buy The Dips!

See you tomorrow.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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There's Always a Reason to Justify Buying

This is starting to become a habit. The Bears demonstrated as much follow through as Massachusetts did with the Big Dig (no offense to people who like to Paaak their Caaas). The Bulls wasted no time in the closing hour pouring into the market setting new four year closing highs. The breadth turned up nicely to close at almost 2:1 positive and the volume was okay at 1.7billion shares. Importantly, the new highs versus new lows showed slight improvement. This is an internal measurement that we have been concerned with lately and frankly still are.

As the week progresses towards the day of Tryptophane…the chemical in turkey that makes you sleepy…we wonder when this market will ever rest. Our gut tells us that as long as the absolute performance levels on the major averages are still paltry, players still feel that a bargain is at hand. Remember the market is overbought however; it can remain so longer than seems reasonable.

If You Held a Taser to Our Head:
Your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team has been over 100% invested for most of this ride. However, we have some rented exposure in ETF's that we are looking to jettison when the internals show negative divergence to the major averages. Until then NASDAQ 2300 is starting to come within sight and no longer seems like a pipe dream for 2005.

Hope you did well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Bulls Follow the Pilgrims in Exploring a New Range 11-21-05

Good Afternoon.

The NASDAQ continues to hold tough despite the selling in some of the Semiconductor names. The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and many Asian markets are breaking above multiyear highs. Today however the pressure in Semi's is stemming primarily from Sandisk (SNDK) down approximately 16% due to the announced alliance between Intel (INTC) and Micron Technologies (MU). Small Caps are showing a little lagging action as well which is preventing the Bulls from really getting things going.

Have you noticed that despite the minor obstacles in front of the Bulls today, the Bears are even more lame? The burden of proof continues to rest with the Bears. They need to follow up on Cliff's in the market that they are still able to produce. Every time the Bulls recognize that the Bears "Get Spent" rather quickly the Bulls start administering their punishment.

The put/call ratio has been falling recently which is an indication that more people are becoming believers in an end of the year rally. However, some people get nervous that too many players are anticipating a fourth quarter rally. They believe that when the consensus is expecting something it rarely materializes. Other people believe that the consensus is usually right until it becomes extreme in its conviction. This game of out guessing the guessers becomes futile. Simply put your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team has articulated on these pages many reasons to expect a fourth quarter rally and beyond. Unless we see evidence that changes our underlying reasons we will continue to be believers ourselves.

Should the Bulls exert more pressure on the Bears this week, a new trading range will have been created. Rather than NASDAQ 2200 be the top end of the range it will now become support. The beautiful thing is that isolating resistance is much more difficult due to the fact that we are in waters uncharted since 2001.

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Good Afternoon 11-18-05

There will be no posts today due to client meetings.

The Kcap Team is still aggressively long and sticking with our intermediate-term and long-term Bullish outlook on the NASDAQ.

Have a Good Weekend. See you on Monday.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Holy Moly Batman!

When the Semiconductors started showing positive performance and brought themselves up over 0.5% on the day your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team started schvitzing. The decision had to be made as to whether or not to follow our well laid out logical plans or just say PHUK it (can we say this?) and start adding some more exposure. Being the good intermediate and long-term Bulls that we are we decided to choose the latter and fortunately so.

The market soon spiked and closed at the highest levels since June 2001. Breadth was awesome however the volume was just OKAY. The interesting thing about this market is that the higher we go and more likely we are for a sharp correction the more participants have built in fat to handle such a decline. Therefore, selling volume will be light helping to keep the dips shallow. In other words once you start playing with the house money you are less likely to be protective over it and will not feel the need to sell.

If You Held a Taser to Our Head:
All-in-all our finger is still on the sell button with our rented exposure that we have acquired over the past couple of days. We are currently 100% net long, 80% of which represents our core positions. A sharp decline is inevitable but is now difficult to forecast from what level. Don't get us wrong, we are cheering for such a decline to happen. Any juicy shakeout from here or above that fully recovers will be magical for the Bulls going forward.

Hope you did well!

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Kcap Capitulates a Little

The Dow and the NASDAQ are threatening to break out. The Small Cap action has been strong and even the Semi's have moved into positive territory. We have been wishing and hoping and doing favors for the Trading Gods in hopes of getting a juicier pullback. However, so far our prayers have gone unanswered. Fortunately we have been very long this market even after lightening up some exposure in the last few days.

We now find our selves in the same position that every other Bullish but tired trader is in. Do we attempt to further protect profits or do we yield to the potential breakout in the market. All of our experience and judgment tells us that the market has done an excellent job of sucking in idle cash. The chances for a sharp pullback are VERY VERY high. However money management discipline has forced us to not out-think the action too much rather go a little more with the flow.

Therefore we have reluctantly added a little more exposure into ETF's specifically iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) to play a potential short-term breakout. Rather than dwell on the concept of protecting profits we have done an excellent job of convincing ourselves that these profits should provide ample fat for when we lose money on this trade!

You may be able to tell that we are not happy campers adding in at these levels. If we find out that we bought any of your shares…remember, we have your IP address!...only kidding.

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Market…TAKE A NAP ALREADY! 11-17-05

Good Afternoon.

Momentum is a hard thing to kill but when it dies…it dies hard. When the NASDAQ bounced off of the 2176 level yesterday most of the anxious Bovines actually missed that dip. Kicking themselves hard in the rear-end they are now using any weakness to part with their cash. For this reason the market continues to levitate. A sympathy move with the nearly 2% gain in the Nikkei is also part of the reason for today's levitation. Let's not forget that Intel (INTC) also caught an upgrade from a minor brokerage house.

Despite the INTC upgrade the Semiconductor sector is lagging. The poor guidance from Applied Materials (AMAT) is weighting on the group. On a side note your friendly neighborhood Kcap team is no fan of the management of AMAT. We have found them over the years to be inconsistent and unreliable in their forecasts. Furthermore, they are of the cheerleading type, just before they pull the rug out from underneath investors.

The need to find balance of exposure in a market that refuses to rest but badly needs one cannot be overstated. For participants that have an intermediate to longer term Bullish view they should consider maintaining their portfolio with core positions of at least 70% net long even when they are anticipating a short-term pullback. Nothing is more painful than to not partake in a major Bull Run because you were completely shaken out from a little near-term apprehension. As long as you still have significant cash ammunition to deploy should your apprehension prove correct you will be able to withstand just about anything the market dishes out. It is the "all or nothing" trader types that suffer the most when they get COMPLETELY shaken out of their long-term plans due to short-term expected swings.

Therefore, we are still approximately 80% net long despite the stratospheric conditions of the market. However, we sure would like the market to rest in here.

Hope you're doing well

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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To Decline or to Base…That is the Question.

The market looked like a pretty faced girl treading water in a beautiful lake. However when you looked under the surface you were able to see all 400lbs of her. A handful of Large Caps such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO) noticeably outperformed today which disproportionately skewed the NASDAQ's overall strength. Clearly Small Caps were lagging and Semi's didn't have much oomph either. The breadth was negative at almost 2:1 and defensive plays such as Gold and Oil had strong relative performance. This action is troublesome as it further sucks in capitulating Bears and overanxious dip buyers. Therefore the chance for a sharp decline to materialize will increase should the market continue to exude this type of behavior.

On the other hand if anyone ever doubted the concept of performance anxiety, action like this can help them find some religion. Under the surface lurks a ferocious buying appetite that will ultimately bring the NASDAQ to new highs by the end of the year. In the meantime we are weary of the near-term risk for a decline that may bring the NASDAQ to 2060 - 2070 by mid next week. We would expect that players who are being sucked in by the most recent action to stop out of their positions around those lower levels.

If You Held a Taser to Out Head:
Should the NASDAQ refuse to provide the above mentioned decline by mid next week we will be scrutinizing the internals for signs of a takeoff nonetheless. Either way we are expecting a large upward continuation move in the NASDAQ over the next few weeks. Simply put the consolidation can be fulfilled by one more sharp decline or several days of basing. For the time being we are still of the mindset that the decline is more likely due to the fact that the internals are deteriorating despite the resilience of the averages.

Hope you did well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Not a "Bulliever" in This Spike 11-16-05

Good Afternoon.

The NASDAQ sold down to 2176 which lead some to believe that the pullback has run its course. Honestly now, how much fear do you think has really developed on this pullback? It seems more like a big yawn rather than teeth chattering. While we recognize that perception is reality and the NASDAQ may indeed run further, we are alarmed by how easy it seems to be a "Bulliever". The breadth is lousy and Small Cap action is M.I.A. Leadership in the internet sector usually does not offer a solid platform for continuation. Furthermore, the Investor Intelligence Survey (IIS) polls are showing significant increase in positive sentiment (a bearish sign).

Fundamentally speaking, Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in tame and Business Inventories came in higher than expected which bodes well for overall GDP growth. This trend will have the positive effect of relieving capacity constraints which have been affecting profitability and productivity in key sectors such as the Semi's. Corporations are still strained to capacity due to years of overly cautious behavior.

We are still mostly net long the market but have used NASDAQ levels between 2186 and 2190 to further lighten some exposure. Should the Bulls fail to follow through on today's action the Bears will finally be able to slap their soiled diapers onto the backside of the Bulls…sorry for the imagery.

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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When the Fear Hits the Fan

The market finally sold off peaking at NASDAQ 2204 today. Your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team was fortunate in reducing significant exposure at NASDAQ 2203. Breadth was negative at around 2:1 and volume was slightly heavier than yesterday. Amazingly and predictably the wished for pullback materialized yet didn't produce many dip buyers.

It is a beautiful and sometimes embarrassing phenomenon to watch human psychology in all its glorious action. The likely scenario is for the market to pullback even further while fully invested Smart Alec Bulls convince themselves how healthy this is. Only after truly bad news surprises the market will their capitulatory selling take place with a spoonful of good old fashion fear. That will be the point in time when cash levels have risen and can provide further fuel to the year-end rally that IS STILL UNDERWAY.

If You Held a Taser to Our Head:
Although we raised some cash today we are still plenty long. However, the flexibility we now have will be used to get even more aggressively long than we were before. We'll be waiting for the Fear to hit the fan! Our largest concern is that we ourselves do not fall into the same trap that the Smart Alec Bulls will find themselves in.

Hope you raised a little cash today.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Adding Some Flexibility 11-15-05

Good Afternoon.

The economic news this morning was stellar with solid growth in retail sales and a much lower than expected Core PPI. It reminds us of some kind of Economists dream. Home Depot (HD) has positive comments yet Target (TGT) said the opposite. Amazon.com (AMZN) was added to the S&P 500 replacing AT&T (T).

Big Ben Bernanke is going through his confirmation process and delivering a sweet love song. His focus on targeted inflation goals is extremely positive news for the fixed income market as well as all global financial markets. Along with his zeal for more Fed transparency, market participants can look forward to more certainty. This level of increased certainty has huge implications for corporate planning boards, financial institutions, foreign central banks, etc. Virtually all economic participants will benefit from a more objective FOMC approach as opposed to the subjective approach of the Greenspan Era. Furthermore his probable inflation targets are most likely slightly lower than current inflation levels. The implication is that although he sees current FOMC policy as accommodative, it will not take many more Fed Rate increases to achieve neutrality.

The Bulls have plenty of ammunition to work with today if they choose to get busy. Our thought process has been that they may take the market up another 1% before a more noticeable pullback ensues. However, they are acting somewhat lethargic thus far. We are under-whelmed with the lackluster performance of the Small Cap sector. In order to provide ourselves a little more flexibility we have decided to decrease our exposure into this Spike (NASDAQ currently 2203). Should the NASDAQ reach our initial target of around 2220 - 2230 we would eject even more exposure.

Still long and strong!

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Does a Bear _ _ _ _ in the Woods?

The Bears have cramps. Every time they get a healthy dose of the runs, the Bulls cork 'em up. Once again if they can't get 'em down we might as well buy 'em. Therefore our most recently predicted pop and drop scenario for early this week may still play out.

The Semiconductors held strong yet the Small Caps were a tad weak. Despite this Small Cap weakness there were clear pockets of strength in speculative issues. This bodes well for a little Starsky and Hutch once the market regains its Momo.

If You Held a Taser To Our Head:
We are maintaining our very Bullish posture expecting another 1% spike before a more noticeable pullback materializes. We will use this strength to lighten our posture ever so slightly. Any pullback late this week will hand the Bulls an early Thanksgiving!

Short (unlike our portfolio) and Sweet…Hope you did well!

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Be Careful What You Wish For 11-14-05

Good Afternoon.

The stock market has been heavy all day with negative breadth. In fact breadth has been problematic recently despite the markets levitation. Although the breadth has often been positive in recent days individual stocks have not demonstrated enough new highs as the averages continued to rise.

The market badly needs a healthy consolidation. Our hopes were for a false breakout either today or tomorrow before such a pullback were to materialize. Thus far the Bulls cannot seem to show any commitment. Perhaps they are still playing the 3 O'clock game in order to determine exactly how sharp the Bear's claws actually are.

While the Semi's are outperforming the Small Caps are lagging. The bounce in the energy sector is probably causing a little uneasiness in the NASDAQ. Even the future privatization of Georgia Pacific (GP) is hardly inspiring the Bulls today.

Due to the fact that the market is short-term overbought yet the intermediate and longer-term still seems healthy we would expect any pullback this week to be well contained. The Bulls may still show up for work and rally the market one last time this week before the consolidation truly kicks in. However, the pullback seems inevitable and is more than welcome.

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Hard To Keep The Bull Down

The market is very impressive in its ability to hold the gains that have been racked up recently. Clearly there are many traders lurking who are compelled to buy even the shallowest of dips. Despite today's profit taking in the Semi's (which was contained) the NASDAQ managed to close over the key 2200 level. Breadth was positive however volume was light. Even Dell (DELL) managed to hold gains into the close despite it's somewhat disappointing earnings report. The pressure in Oil has certainly provided a little ammo to the stock market Bulls as well. All-in-all the Bulls racked up another short-term victory.

The NASDAQ is now within spitting distance of this years intraday high of 2219. A little Monday optimism might actually present the opportunity to recapture that level. The concern of course is that when a market hits key resistance coming from such an extended overbought condition it is very vulnerable to a sharp pullback. In light of the extremely Bullish underlying fundamentals to this rally (in our view) we would not be surprised if the market were to breach the 2219 level early next week, further sucking in more shell shocked underinvested Bulls and Bears. As Ross Perot used to say, "Expect to hear a giant sucking sound".

If You Held A Taser To Our Head:
Should the NASDAQ recapture the 2219 high early next week we would expect a false breakout to occur. Our strategy at that point would be to lighten exposure down to 75% net long in anticipation of a healthy pullback. As we discussed in our prior posts it is incumbent upon the NASDAQ to do a better shake-out and dance this time around or risk serious damage for the intermediate and long-term.

Hope you did well today.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Hoping To Temporarily Lose Some Money! 11-11-05

Good Afternoon.

At this point, everybody knows the market is tired and could use a pullback. Yesterday's consolidation was just not enough to work off the overbought condition and extended nature of the market. The wait and see game that people are currently playing is to see if the Bears can strut their stuff intraday. Bulls that are nervous about buying before a healthier consolidation has occurred choose to wait for the 3 O'clock all clear signal. When it is clear that there is not enough time for the Bears to flex their muscles; the Bulls rush in all at once creating an accelerated up move into the close. Our complaint with this action is that the market needs to have a healthier consolidation for intermediate-term survival.

This is our new concern for the market that we expressed yesterday. Specifically we are unhappy with the fact that this market has yet to pull back in a noticeable fashion. In order for our intermediate Bullish strategy to play out, the market must not get too extended in the near-term. Since we believe that the tail often wags the dog, an extended stock market would be susceptible to much sharper declines than we have factored into our analysis. These sharp declines can cause self-fulfilling destruction in the financial markets further eroding confidence in the real economy. Therefore, although we are maintaining our very Bullish posture we will be on guard for revisions in our viewpoints should the market not provide a better shakeout in the next couple of weeks.

Evidence of the markets tired condition can be seen in the diminishing new highs for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ while the averages are surpassing their recent highs. An ideal situation would be for the NASDAQ to Spike above the year high of 2217 perhaps approaching 2230 by early next week. This action would be sufficient to suck in more players suffering from performance anxiety creating another opportunity for a healthy consolidation. Should this happen the consolidation would need to last several days taking the NASDAQ back down to 2190ish. A subsequent move back to 2230 after such a pullback would reaffirm our extremely Bullish thesis for the stock market.

We are very much hoping for such a scenario to play out in the next two weeks due to the fact that we would be highly disappointed to have to abandon our very Bullish forecast. The market has the best window of opportunity in 5 years to explore the upside and it would be a shame if the persistent 3 O'clock Bullish hedge funds ruin it by chasing until their dry...then simultaneously short the market causing it to die.

Hope you are doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Caught Off Guard

The market blew past yesterday's high of around 2183. Clearly the buying pressure was even greater than we expected. There's no other way to say it except that, "WE WERE WRONG" in thinking that the pullback would last a few more days. This is the reason why we refused to allow our long exposure to fall below 75%.

We have added back some exposure into strength however we do have a new concern about this action. Pullbacks are meant to restore health to the market as long as they don't go too far. The fact that this market has been denied a healthy enough pullback from these levels is a little troublesome. Therefore, the exposure that we have added into strength will be more of a rental as opposed to a buy and hold.

Now would you please excuse us while we wipe the egg off of our faces.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Don't Rush These Pullbacks 11-10-05

Good Afternoon.

The market continues to display classic consolidation action with dip buyers refusing to allow a serious decline to materialize. The underinvested Bulls combined with rotation out of Oils and into Tech are providing a steady diet of fresh liquidity for the NASDAQ.

The news out of Intel (INTC) this morning upping their buyback and increasing their dividend is lending support to the Tech sector. Although this invited some short selling early on, those overanxious Bears are also providing some upside short covering fuel as the market once again shows resiliency.

Tops in the market whether they are short-term or long-term are a process that takes time. This is especially true when Money Managers are suffering from performance anxiety (a rare disease that is always fatal). Therefore your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team expects a series of failed rally attempts that will make lower highs before the true rolling over action takes effect. Hopefully, the process will not be dragged out too long. The longer the topping process the deeper the decline that materializes with greater risk of a true baton switch to the Bears.

We would not be surprised to see this declining process continue a little longer, perhaps culminating mid next week. A catalyst such as cold weather which could spike the energy sector might be the nudge that will convert Yogi Bear into a Grizzly Bear. Without the liquidity flow from the energy sector the NASDAQ would indeed lose a friend. When a more fearful pullback finally materializes we will closely scrutinize for positive divergences. This will be one of our indications that our Bullish thesis is still intact which will prompt us to dramatically increase our net-long exposure.

This will be our only post today due to client meetings.

See you tomorrow.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Eagle for Kcap?

Yesterday we predicted the NASDAQ would pop to 2183 before resuming a little selling action. The NASDAQ did indeed pop and hit an intraday high of 2182.90. A reader complimented us saying "Tiger Woods couldn't have come closer". While we accept the compliment we are cognizant of the fact that good market calls are often followed by bad market calls. Therefore our senses and emotions are heightened so as to avoid any major blunders. At this point in time our definition of a major blunder would be to allow Mr. Market to shake us out of too many of our positions. So although we certainly lightened our exposure into today's strength from over 100% long to 75% net long, we are aware of the fact that we will need to endure a little pain before we reap further gain.

Today's volume was okay and the breadth turned positive by the close. The bombings in Jordan provided only a momentary shakeout which led to further dip buying. Small Caps and Semi's also showed resilience.

After the bell The Cisco (CSCO) Duck avoided a negative report that would have led us to alter our Bullish bias. The company met expectations and essentially guided inline.

HO HO Whole Foods (WFMI) was ahead of expectations, raised guidance, and is offering stock splits and special dividends to good little boys and girls. Despite this the stock has been all over the map in after-hours trading. Some people just don't know how to accept a gift.

If You Held A Taser To Our Head:
The market has begun a short-term pullback period that should last a few days. As long as the NASDAQ can hold above 2140-2150 the Bulls have firm control. We intend on buying back all of our positions recently sold over the next several days. In fact if you thought we were aggressively long over the past few weeks…you ain't seen nothing yet!

Hope you traded well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Pop, Drop, and BOOM…Playing Out 11-9-05

Good Afternoon.

In yesterday's post we said that the market would likely have a pop before a drop. This morning our prediction seemed a little faulty as the Bearish sentiment was following through from yesterday's lackluster action. The Crude Oil inventory numbers which were fundamentally bullish for the stock market was used as an opportunity to short by the immature Bears. Fortunately we chose not to do anything at that moment and wait for our predicted levels. Once the market surpassed the level where most Bears shorted earlier today, many covered and gave us the hoped for "pop".

In practicing what we preach we have indeed lightened up a little more exposure by hedging with NASDAQ 100 Trust (QQQQ) at NASDAQ 2180. Our belief is that once the immature Bears have fully covered this morning's short sales, the more patient Bears will get aggressive around these higher levels. Therefore, we choose to temporarily decrease our aggressiveness.

Patience is a virtue.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Expecting a Pop, Drop, and Boom!

The market indeed showed its fatigue today, however the energy and telecom sectors showed outperformance. The volume was moderate and the breadth was almost 2:1 negative for the major averages. Todays action can only be described as healthy consolidation. The Bears were too shell shocked to get aggressive despite the obvious lackluster action from the Bulls. The Bulls did manage a small rally near the close.

We believe the Bulls are firmly in charge of this market for the intermediate and longer term. Despite this, we are expecting a little more growling from the bears in the very near term. Should the Bulls demonstrate another feeble attempt to rally tomorrow, the Bears may get a little more emboldend. The Bears may muster enough energy to actually add some fear into the mix over the next few days. More fear and uncertaintity would be ideal for the stronger bulls to run with into year end. So go ahead Bears,... Here's a Nice Rope!

If you held a Taser to Our Head: The underinvested Bulls may take comfort that todays pullback was so mild. They may waddle into the market tomorow thinking that the Bears have absolutely no claws. The Nasdaq may put in a small rally to around 2183 before the more aggressive Bears spring to life. We are hopeful that the Nasdaq will hold the 2140-2150 level over the next several days which would be ideal for the continuation of the year end rally. We are considering using any feeble rally tomorrow to raise a little more cash so we are better positioned to Hang the Bears.

Still staying very Long.

See you tomorrow.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Taking a very little bit off of the table 11-8-05

Good Afternoon.

We're lightening up a little bit of our Semiconductor exposure into this strength. Now don't get all bent out of shape, we are still invested very aggressively. A few days ago we said the NASDAQ could reach around 2185 (currently 2181…close enough). There are some signs that the market is tired as the new highs are starting to slip. A pullback may occur and will be sharp, contained, and quick. After such a decline, we will rapidly buy back the SMH shares that we have sold. Mind you, we are not opposed to buying back higher if necessary.

Hope you're doing well. Good Trading.

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The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Ride 'Em Cowboy! 11-7-05

Good Afternoon.

The stock market did a classic little shake and dance this morning further throwing weak Bulls out into the gutter. The stronger hands used the dip to their advantage and have steadily marched the market higher all day long. Semiconductors and Small Caps are acting well and are not getting too far ahead of themselves. If you pear under the covers you will notice continuous skepticism with every move higher in most stocks acting well. Nothing could be more beautiful.

Many people missed this move and are kicking themselves so hard in the rear that they have Nike written on both cheeks. Some people are imprinted with Ferragamo but we won't get into that. Remember, we have been warning our readers that the dips will be shallow and quick. The urge to sell knowing that the market has run quite a bit recently is building. Everyone knows the market is getting overbought so isn't it logical to take some off of the table? The answer is, "yes, it's logical", but whoever applies logic to making money in the stock market is truly unwise.

The fact that the market is overbought is exactly the reason it will become even more overbought. The fundamentals underlying this market are so stealthy and strong that by the time traders capitulate to the concept that the market will forever stay overbought is when it will finally relieve its pressure all over their shoes. Just to make it worse, the pullback that relieves pressure will have the odor of asparagus…now that's disgusting...sorry. At that point in time the hatred and disgust levels will border on violence. Therein will lie another wonderful two to three day dip that will need to be aggressively bought.

However, we fully expect that the stock market will soon put in a string of up days that will be unparalleled to anything we've seen in 2005. Traders must always remember that the market wants you off of its back as its going higher, even when you know it is. The greatest of Bulls will be thrown from the horse's back many times.

Yee Haww!!

This will be our one and only post today due to meetings with new clients. See you tomorrow.

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The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Don't Wait For Your Pitch!

The stock market did exactly the right thing. A little consolidation on lighter volume was just enough to shake out some weak holders and set the stage for more upside next week. The breadth even managed to close positive on the NASDAQ. Every pullback refreshes the market for further upside. The fact that the market managed a nice bid into the close was text book Bullish action. Chalk up another upset for the Bears.

The market will not offer the fat pitch that so many are looking for. Therefore underinvested Bulls as well as mildly Bearish traders will soon capitulate. They will rationalize buying at this level knowing that the market is still flat to down on the year.

Stronger Bears will stubbornly hold out while watching the rocket ship leave the platform. They are destined to provide more rocket fuel from significantly higher levels. Fortunately for the fully invested Bulls (a.k.a. Kcap) there are barges and tankers loaded with rocket fuel for future capitulatory purchases. After over five years of disappointing market action the stubborn Bears will not die easily. The cruelty of the market is such that the most skeptical buyers pay the highest prices…go figure!


If You Held a Taser To Our Head:
The market will continue on its "trek to the stars". On October 11, 2005 your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team made an extremely bold call for a multi-year bottom on the NASDAQ. Funny how the skeptics from a few weeks ago are no longer sending us e-mail. Perhaps they are too busy buying at higher prices.

Long most tech stocks on Earth and Planet Vulcan.

Live long and prosper.

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The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Only Take Action at Major Levels. 11-4-05

Good Afternoon.

When analyzing yesterday's large gains we have some complaints about the breadth. For a huge up day, although the breadth was positive, it could have used a lifesaver. However, the NASDAQ continues to add to the new high list. We were especially pleased to see the huge volume.

The hallmark of a Bull market is that the dips become increasingly shallow as time progresses. Resistance levels seem to be ignored as well as any fundamentally negative news. Emotions and liquidity are far stronger than anything else when the market finds itself in the early stages of a major Bull run. For this reason your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team intends on being very forgiving as the market approaches resistance levels that normally would require defensive action. In other words, it will take an awful lot to get us to sell simply because a minor resistance level is approached or some bad news is thrown in our face. In fact, we will even act lethargically in lightening exposure as the market approaches major resistance levels (next major resistance level between NASDAQ 2185 - 2195). When we do finally sell a little we still plan on maintaining a very Bullish posture of at least 75% invested. We will be very quick to replace our positions after a few days regardless of price.

Avoid the siren song of the Bear and burn your technical charts at minor resistance levels. Ignore the sell side analysts who downgrade on valuation. Laugh at the negative fundamentals when they appear such as this morning's jobs report. The market wants to go higher and who are you to argue with it.

The NASDAQ pulled back in classic form after the NASDAQ 100 Trust (QQQQ) breached the $40 price point. As long as the sell off is contained we expect the dip buyers to charge into the market over the next couple of days like Toys 'R Us shoppers lined up for Beanie Babies, Pokemon, Cabbage Patch Dolls, Tickle me Elmo, or whichever shining example of classic human behavior helps you envision the euphoria.

Buy the dips!

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The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Sweaty cash

Extremely impressive action in the stock market today. The breadth was strong better than 2:1 on both the NASDAQ and NYSE. In addition to that the volume was huge at over 2.2 billion shares on the Nazz and almost as much on the NYSE. All the major averages are now above their 50 day simple moving average.

After the bell Qualcomm posted a decent report and raised guidance for next quarter. In the financial sector Prudential blew the lights out after hours with their report. Regular readers are reminded that your friendly neighborhood Kcap team has been recommending the large cap brokerages as well as technology stocks. We expect further out-performance from the financial group in 2006 directly resulting from increased deal flow in the technology sector (ahh... synergies). We also believe that the increase in market volatility will bode well for the brokerages trading revenues.

Despite today’s stellar market performance, many skeptics still loom. Therefore the bulls can look forward to a steady diet of sidelined cash as it reluctantly drips into the market. When we hit the middle-to the end of November, the pain of the under performing money managers will be "UN-BEARABLE". That’s when you will see a chase scene right out of Starsky and Hutch.

If you held a Taser to Our Head:
The Bears may still try to pull the market down as long as the NASDAQ remains under 2147, however those dips will not last long. Once the NASDAQ recaptures the 2147 level on a closing basis and puts in a little basing action the situation will be ideal. Should that materialize in the next week, the bulls will have COMPLTE CONTROL.

Hope you did well.

We will not be able to post tomorrow but will be back on Friday.

See you then.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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There's Nothing Like a Nice Pair of SOX 11-2-05

Good Afternoon.

Our feet are feeling all warm and toasty as our heavy exposure in the Semiconductors (SOX) starts to heat up. The SOX seems to be finally coming to life which is leading the NASDAQ higher. As goes the SOX so goes the NASDAQ and as goes the NASDAQ so goes the overall market. The solid performance in Small Caps doesn't hurt matters either. In the face of some controversial earnings reports from Mega-caps recently the market is acting very well.

There is nothing more fascinating than to watch traders and money managers freak out with a heavy dose of performance anxiety. Fundamentals be darned, they want in this market with only two months left in the year if they think they are going to be left behind. Not only do they want in but they want beta. Few money managers are hitting the ball out of the park this year and many are in danger of closing down. Chasing beta at this point not only seems like the right thing to do but is perceived as almost a no choice scenario. The interesting thing is that despite their skepticism the fundamentals under the surface of this market are quite strong.

We were please with the results of earnings season and remain confident that pullbacks will be met by strong buyers who also appreciate the underlying strength. As it becomes more evident that earnings expectations and top-line sales forecasts will need to be raised dramatically for Technology companies in 2006; we expect the Bull to actually get out of control with giddiness.

In the near-term we need to see the NASDAQ close and base above 2147. Our analysis shows that many traders consider this to be breakout territory. Until we can convincingly capture that level the market will still be subject to large swings. Watch for the dips to become increasingly shallow as time progresses.

Your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team has been preaching recently that macho traders should remove their trading hats and FORCE their heads into investing hats. We know this makes them feel un-cool and a little nerdy wearing an investing hat but when it comes to big money nerds often rule the world.

If you're long stay the course. Don't trade. If you're not long then you haven't been paying attention so there's no use in us giving you advice now!

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Classic Consolidation

The Bulls should be very happy with today's action. What started out as DELL-irious downward pressure resulted in nothing more than a "Fed-up" fizzle. If this is the most the Bears can do after the recent run-up then we say…BRING IT ON!

The market technicals look strong and the Big Bad Fed is off our back for a while. Strong seasonality mixed with improving fundamentals will prove too potent for the Bears after they fail in their attempt to bring the market significantly lower. If you are a Bull you should be on your knees praying for a little more consolidation; just enough to give the Bears some false hope. A few more days of action similar to today may be just the trick.

After the bell Sun Microsystems (SUNW) reported essentially okay earnings and Electronic Arts (ERTS) had good guidance. We will be watching these stocks tomorrow to see if they can maintain bids in the face of a little more market consolidation. As always we will be focusing on the Semiconductors and DELL for a little recovery.

If You Held A Taser To Our Head:
The market will still be considered healthy if the Bears bring it down to around NASDAQ 2080. We strongly recommend that traders do not fall victim to the allure of the Bear during the remainder of the consolidation period. The timing of the rally may not kick in exactly as the small pocket of Bulls expect. This would just be enough to frustrate them as well. However, more and more, a very strong up move seems inevitable, especially if slightly delayed.

Hope you did well today. See you tomorrow.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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Who's The Real Fed Head?

The Fed raised rates 25 basis points and kept the "measured pace" language in. They spoke about robust productivity which bodes well for contained inflation in the future. They also paid some homage to the disruptions from Katrina and the softening economic implications.

We can't help getting the feeling that the spirit of Ben Bernanke ran today's Fed meeting wearing an Alan Greenspan Halloween mask. All-in-all the Fed meeting turned out to be a neutral event which may be perceived as dovish. We think the market will gyrate a little longer and ultimately find comfort in this news.

Any sell off from here is likely to be less harsh than we originally expected yesterday afternoon. We are slowly scaling into more Semiconductor positions.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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See You In Dell! 11-1-05

Good Afternoon.

Overseas markets were up strong in Asia yet Europe was mixed. In the US the ISM came in better than expected at 59.1 versus forecasts of 57 yet the prices paid component is still problematic for inflation. Remember growth and inflation are still fundamentally considered "a good thing"(thank you Martha).

Today's action is weak in front of the FOMC meeting. More importantly though is the slide in shares of DELL. While we are not terribly concerned or surprised by DELL's preannouncement nonetheless we did a sanity check on the validity of our Bullish view of the fundamentals of the technology sector. It seems that DELL's complaint about consumer demand flies in the face of other evidence showing robust global PC Growth. In all likelihood the law of large numbers has finally caught up to DELL. The sell-side analyst community (who are notoriously behind the curve) still factors in huge market share gains for DELL in addition to sales from overall demand. Apparently competition from the likes of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and other smaller players have crimped DELL's ability to take over the PC world.

We are comforted in our awareness that overall unit volume in DELL combined with its competitors still seems to be robust. Therefore we will be taking the DELL preannouncement as more company specific versus an indication of the health of consumer demand. When analysts extrapolate the DELL news and lower their forecasts for industry demand they will once again be wrong and have to play catch-up throughout 2006. This scenario is another feather in the cap for contrarian long-term Bulls.

We do not deny the fact that consumer confidence has waned in the last two months. Indeed the level of frustration has been building, further setting up an explosive opportunity on Wall St. as well as Main St.

There are many parts to the puzzle that have finally been put in place for the long awaited technology blastoff. The picture on the puzzle is starting to look like the one on the box but we could use a little more gloom in order to fully complete it. As long as nobody accidentally kicks over the table, the setup for completion is sooner rather than later.

Hope you're doing well.

___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (“KTB”) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (“KCAP”) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firm’s principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
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