10-26-06 " The Pain, the Pain" (Dr.Smith...from Lost in Space)
The Market has been so persistent in its ramp that virtually no trader is happy at this point in time. The Bears have slit their wrists and most Bulls consider themselves underinvested since they likely took profits along the way. When a rally persists without the slightest of pullbacks, maximum frustration is created especially for Money Managers. Performance anxiety is a serious ailment and can only be remedied by chasing extended stocks or exercising extreme patience with an addition of prayers. Either way, both scenarios are unpleasant. The only well positioned traders are the fully invested immature bovines, usually of the cheerleading variety. Their day of pain will come too.
After the bell, MSFT delivered slightly better than expected earnings but disappointed investors with worse than expected guidance. However, all bad news is being forgiven in the current market environment and MSFT's bright future with its new Vista operating system should certainly be enough of an excuse to give this company a pass on its guidance. The question we must ask ourselves is whether or not the MSFT report coming on the exact day that the NASDAQ closed at a new multi year high, is a catalyst for a "sell the news" reaction in the broader indexes. Remember, even if we do get the long awaited pullback, dip buyers will not die easily. Alternatively, there is so little support underneath this market that a sharp collapse would also not surprise us. In other words, this is another game of musical chairs, though the DJ seems to have fallen asleep.
Other noteworthy companies that reported after the close were AKAM (basically inline with solid new orders), and NTGR (with better than expected results signaling strong consumer electronic sales). In addition, there were somewhat mixed results after hours for other names not mentioned here.
If You Held a Taser to Our Head:
Your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team is feeling MUCHO FRUSTRATION these days. We haven't lost any money with our overall Bearish posture, however we certainly aren't making a boatload either. We have clearly been off on our timing for a sharp correction and are constantly reassessing the analysis that brought us to our short term Bearish outlook. After much contemplation, we are still of the mindset that the recent rally is a FAKE-OUT, one that will end badly! There will still be plenty of time and opportunities to buy our favorite names for the long awaited Bull Market in the NASDAQ. Perhaps when this recent rally finally fails (clobbering everyone in this Solar System as well as Alpha Centauri), the disgust levels will be higher than Jimmy Hendrix and Gerry Garcia ever were. That would certainly be the perfect setup for the TRUE return of the NASDAQ.
Catch you on Monday. ___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (âKTBâ) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (âKCAPâ) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firmâs principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
___________________________
After the bell, MSFT delivered slightly better than expected earnings but disappointed investors with worse than expected guidance. However, all bad news is being forgiven in the current market environment and MSFT's bright future with its new Vista operating system should certainly be enough of an excuse to give this company a pass on its guidance. The question we must ask ourselves is whether or not the MSFT report coming on the exact day that the NASDAQ closed at a new multi year high, is a catalyst for a "sell the news" reaction in the broader indexes. Remember, even if we do get the long awaited pullback, dip buyers will not die easily. Alternatively, there is so little support underneath this market that a sharp collapse would also not surprise us. In other words, this is another game of musical chairs, though the DJ seems to have fallen asleep.
Other noteworthy companies that reported after the close were AKAM (basically inline with solid new orders), and NTGR (with better than expected results signaling strong consumer electronic sales). In addition, there were somewhat mixed results after hours for other names not mentioned here.
If You Held a Taser to Our Head:
Your friendly neighborhood Kcap Team is feeling MUCHO FRUSTRATION these days. We haven't lost any money with our overall Bearish posture, however we certainly aren't making a boatload either. We have clearly been off on our timing for a sharp correction and are constantly reassessing the analysis that brought us to our short term Bearish outlook. After much contemplation, we are still of the mindset that the recent rally is a FAKE-OUT, one that will end badly! There will still be plenty of time and opportunities to buy our favorite names for the long awaited Bull Market in the NASDAQ. Perhaps when this recent rally finally fails (clobbering everyone in this Solar System as well as Alpha Centauri), the disgust levels will be higher than Jimmy Hendrix and Gerry Garcia ever were. That would certainly be the perfect setup for the TRUE return of the NASDAQ.
Catch you on Monday. ___________________________________________________
The analysis, opinions and/or forecasts expressed on the Kcap Trading Blog (âKTBâ) are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. By using this site you agree that Kleiner Capital Management, LLC (âKCAPâ) and its principals are not liable for any action you take or any decision you make in reliance on any content. Please be aware that there is no commitment by KCAP to update the KTB. Furthermore, there may be inconsistent timing and follow up (if any) of posts.
None of the information on KTB is considered individualized investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any securities. Reliance on information provided on KTB in no way establishes an advisor-client relationship. Investors are encouraged to seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to investing funds.
Clients of KCAP, as well as the firmâs principals and other employees, may be invested in securities discussed at KTB. However, any mention of said securities is not intended to influence market conditions for the security to the benefit of KCAP clients and/or principals and employees. KCAP is not affiliated with any advertisers on this site and does not endorse any of their content. For additional information and disclosures, please visit www.kleinercapital.com.
The information on KTB has been furnished from sources we consider to be reliable, but no guarantee is made with respect to accuracy.
___________________________
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posted by Kleiner Capital Management, LLC. | 7:11 PM
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